In the 2026 holiday season, eBay for the first time fully opened live commerce to qualified sellers across more than 300 categories, no longer using an invitation-only system. In a research report published on October 12, Morgan Stanley estimated that live sales contributed about 40% of eBay's growth this year and raised its target price from $127 to $132.

Key Points

  • eBay's second-quarter gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew 15% year over year to $22.4 billion, with live commerce listed as one of the growth drivers.
  • A Morgan Stanley survey of about 2,000 U.S. consumers found that more than half of live shoppers resell at least part of what they buy, spending an average of $316 per month per person.
  • According to its own estimates, the live platform Whatnot accounts for about 60% of the Western live shopping market, while eBay Live accounts for only about 8% based on Morgan Stanley's calculations.

From Personal Use to Resale: Live Buyers Are Changing the eBay Ecosystem

Morgan Stanley analyst Nathan Feather wrote in a report titled "The Missing Piece: Why Live Is Already Driving eBay Growth," "You can think of eBay as the NYSE of second-hand goods." He believes that in the past most buyers kept what they bought, but live auctions have brought in short-term traders—they buy cards in livestreams and then relist them on eBay to earn the price difference. This resale behavior directly amplifies platform revenue: eBay charges a fee on every transaction, so the same card changing hands three times generates three transactions, even without any new buyers entering. The aforementioned survey of about 2,000 consumers also showed that live shoppers spend an average of $316 per month, and this habit also explains why eBay has returned to growth without acquiring a large number of new users.

Chaser and Competitor: The Lead of a $2 Billion-Level Platform

eBay does not own the market it is chasing. Feather noted that the private startup Whatnot, by its own estimate, holds about a 60% share of the Western live shopping market, while eBay Live accounts for about 8% according to Morgan Stanley's calculations. Bloomberg reported that Whatnot completed a $545 million funding round in August 2026 at a valuation of $20 billion; according to Retail Insight Network, more than 650,000 people register on the platform each week.

However, eBay can profit even when auctions take place on Whatnot—winning bidders often resell on eBay, and sellers often source goods on eBay before going live. On this basis, Feather argues that the live market is not merely correlated with eBay's growth but is driving it. He also flags risks: eBay's performance now partly depends on competitors' marketing spending, and Whatnot's user growth has begun to slow. The report also mentions that card "box breaks" and "repacks" let buyers pay for a chance at unknown contents in a box, raising controversy over gambling-like consumption; Fortune previously reported that Whatnot drew attention for this, and the company says it prohibits gambling-style activities.

Wall Street's Disagreement

Morgan Stanley's optimism is not consensus. Of the 32 analysts tracked by StockAnalysis, 17 rate eBay "Hold," with an average target price of about $116. Recent views include: Wedbush's Ygal Arounian with a $137 "Buy" target, Bernstein's Nikhil Devnani maintaining "Hold" at $115, and Wells Fargo's Ken Gawrelski cutting to "Sell" at $91. The core of the disagreement is the durability of growth: Morgan Stanley views collectibles as procyclical risk assets, with card prices often rising with small-cap stocks and falling as real interest rates rise. eBay's own third-quarter GMV guidance of 10% to 12% growth (including the newly acquired Depop) also suggests growth may cool.

Feather's key assumption is that by 2030 eBay Live can capture about a 22% share of the live market; if live shopping grows into a $100 billion market by 2030, the stock could reach $237 in his bull case, while his bear case based on a consumer slowdown is as low as $70. He believes live shopping is entertainment rather than an errand that can be handed to an AI shopping agent, and if that holds, live video can also serve as a hedge against the next shift in online retail. For the second-hand trading industry, this holiday season will be the first real test of eBay's open live strategy: if it works, eBay will not just collect a toll on rivals' prosperity but truly capture a larger piece of it.

Source: eBay doubles down on surging customer behavior to drive holiday shopping - AOL · Originally published on 2026-10-13