Morgan Stanley added eBay to its top picks, citing live commerce growth exceeding market expectations, and eBay shares rose as much as 4% on Monday. Morgan Stanley also raised its price target on the stock from $127 to $132, while Wells Fargo cut its target from $92 to $91 and maintained an Underweight rating.

Key Points

  • The U.S. live commerce market grew more than fivefold in two years to $27 billion, with eBay Live contributing at least 40% of the company's FY2026 GMV growth
  • eBay's Q2 GMV reached $22.4 billion, up 15% year over year, and revenue was $3.1 billion, also up 15%
  • Wells Fargo expects eBay's Q3 GMV to beat expectations but believes continued investment in live commerce and C2C will weigh on EPS, with its FY2027 EPS forecast 8% below consensus

Two Investment Banks Go Head to Head
Morgan Stanley analyst Nathan Feather said in a note to clients that live commerce—real-time auction-style selling—has become the "missing piece" explaining eBay's recent acceleration. He expects the live business to compound at 22% annually through 2030 and estimates it will contribute about four percentage points to GMV growth each year from FY2026 to FY2030. Feather used a vivid analogy: eBay is like the NYSE for secondhand goods; the market used to be dominated by "buy-and-hold" individual users, while live commerce has introduced hedge-fund-like users—short-cycle resellers who try to identify underpriced items in fast-paced auctions and relist them on eBay for profit.

Wells Fargo takes a very different view. It expects eBay's Q3 GMV to beat market expectations and Q4 guidance to be about 1% above consensus, but believes EPS will come under pressure as the company keeps investing in live commerce and consumer-to-consumer while fending off competition from resale platform Vinted. Wells Fargo's FY2027 EPS forecast is 8% below analyst consensus.

Performance Background and Acquisition Drama
So far in 2026, eBay shares have risen more than 30%, reversing the slump after the pandemic when consumers returned to offline retail. The rally was partly helped by Q2 results released on August 5: GMV rose 15% year over year to $22.4 billion, revenue rose 15% to $3.1 billion, and eBay Live's GMV in its seven markets increased about eightfold year over year.

For Q3, eBay guided GMV of $22.0 billion to $22.4 billion, revenue of $3.07 billion to $3.12 billion, and non-GAAP EPS of $1.36 to $1.42. Analysts expect EPS of $1.39 and revenue of about $3.1 billion.

There was also a failed acquisition this year. In May, eBay's board rejected a $56 billion takeover offer from game retailer GameStop, expressing doubt about its half-cash, half-stock financing plan. GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen said he was willing to take the offer directly to eBay shareholders, setting the stage for a hostile takeover battle. Analysts questioned whether GameStop, with a market value of about $10 billion, could acquire a company four times its size.

Wall Street Remains Divided
Among the 23 Wall Street analysts covering eBay, the consensus rating is "Moderate Buy," based on 12 Buy, 9 Hold and 2 Sell ratings over the past three months. The average price target of $120.60 implies about 2% upside from current levels, reflecting the market's tug of war between eBay's accelerating revenue growth and the cost of sustaining that growth.

GMV is the core metric in this debate, measuring the total value of paid transactions on eBay including shipping and taxes, excluding adjustments for returns or cancellations. It differs from eBay's reported revenue, so strong GMV growth does not automatically mean a corresponding profit increase. With eBay's Q3 earnings due soon, whether it can prove that live commerce not only drives volume but also genuinely contributes profit will be key to determining which side is right.

For the secondhand clothing and apparel resale industry, eBay Live's auction model provides short-cycle resellers with a new sales channel, and the leading platform's ability to convert live traffic into GMV also signals that the pace of online circulation of secondhand goods is accelerating.

Source: Morgan Stanley Names eBay a Top Pick on Live Commerce Momentum, Lifting Shares 4% — BigGo Finance · Originally published 2026-10-12